Air Quality and Health Gains from Truck Electrification: Accounting for Feasible Spatial Patterns and Integrated Emission Control

Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) remain an important source of urban air pollution in Chinese megacities, yet their electrification faces stronger constraints than passenger cars due to battery range and charging limitations. Here, we developed a framework combining real-world vehicle activities, a feasibility-based assessment that evaluates whether different truck categories can be electrified under realistic daily mileage and charging-window constraints, and atmospheric modeling to evaluate the air quality, health, and economic benefits of vehicle emission control strategies in Shanghai by 2035. We find that electrification potential varies widely, from below 40% for heavy-duty semitrailers to over 95% for heavy-duty special-purpose trucks. Comprehensive vehicle control measures could reduce nitrogen oxides (NOX), hydrocarbon, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions by 78%, 66%, and 56%, respectively. Based on the assessments of electrification feasibility, increasing the share of HDTs that can realistically be electrified would cut an additional 975–2083 tons of NOX emissions and further lower population-weighted average nitrogen dioxide, PM2.5, and maximum daily 8 h average ozone concentration by 1.3, 0.5, and 1.5 μg/m3 under cross-sectoral coordination beyond comprehensive control. These strategies yield substantial health gains and economic benefits, with box trucks showing the highest per-vehicle benefit, reaching 7.2 thousand Chinese yuan annually in 2035. These findings emphasize the need to prioritize feasible HDT electrification pathways and to integrate vehicle controls with broader cross-sectoral emission reductions to maximize air quality and health cobenefits.