Crime concerns and the willingness to use autonomous public transportation: a comparative analysis of India, Pakistan, and China

The adoption of emerging autonomous public transportation, such as buses and ride-pooling services, is critically dependent on public acceptance, which is heavily influenced by perceived interpersonal security (crime-related) concerns. This study aims to examine how perceived crime occurrence, victimization risk, and unwillingness to use autonomous public buses and ride-pooling services differ across three distinct socio-cultural contexts, namely India, Pakistan and China. Data were collected from 2,241 urban respondents using a scenario-based stated-preference questionnaire that presented hypothetical travel situations varying by mode type, time of travel, automation level, and presence of security mechanisms. A multi-method analytical framework was employed, including descriptive analysis, Mann–Whitney U tests, and extended ordered probit models with random parameters to capture both systematic and unobserved heterogeneity in risk perception. Results show that automation significantly increases perceived crime risk and unwillingness to use across all contexts, though the magnitude differs. Respondents in Pakistan reported the highest perceived insecurity and lowest acceptance, followed by India, while Chinese participants showed relatively higher confidence in autonomous systems. Female respondents, lower-income groups, and individuals previously exposed to crime consistently reported elevated fear and avoidance tendencies. The absence of a human driver or security officer emerged as the strongest determinant of perceived insecurity, confirming the critical symbolic role of visible “capable guardianship.” This paper provides the first cross-cultural, quantitative comparison of crime-related AV adoption barriers in an Asian context. Policy implications highlight the necessity of context-sensitive, phased deployment strategies, culturally tailored communication, and visible security mechanisms, to cultivate public trust in autonomous transport.