Determinants of forest-fire containment success in the Viphya plantations of Northern Malawi

Abstract Background Large forest fires continue to impose increased economic, environmental and public health consequences worldwide. As a result, there is a profound need to mitigate the risks of wildfires. Using forest-fire management data from Viphya plantations in Malawi, this study employs survival analysis to explore the relationship between suppression efforts and fire containment success. Results The results show that fire suppression and containment success increases with firefighting capacity (resources and equipment). Notably, the availability of operational fire towers has the most substantial impact on fire containment success. Furthermore, the success of suppression efforts is complemented by screefed firebreaks, prescribed early burning, and fire weather conditions such that higher relative humidity tends to reduce fire intensity and increase fire suppression success, while wind speed accelerates fire spread, thereby prolonging fire containment time. Conclusion The findings highlight the need to prioritise low-cost, high-impact fire management interventions that can enhance preparedness and early detection. Specifically, maintaining existing fire towers and investing in additional infrastructure to ensure wider forest coverage can enhance early detection and facilitate quicker fire containment. Additionally, more capital-intensive technologies, such as automated fire detection systems and unmanned aerial vehicles may be adopted incrementally as resources permit to complement hand-crew based suppression efforts.