Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, challenges and future perspectives of intelligent health eldercare industry development in China: a spatial analysis and policy text mining from 1982 to 2024

Intelligent eldercare has positive implications for maintaining social networks and improving the quality of life. The study aimed to examine spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of intelligent eldercare development in China, and provide recommendations for sustainable development. Enterprise information was available from the TianYanCha website, and spatial analysis was employed to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. We obtained policy documents from official websites and the PKULAW Database, and established a three-dimensional analytical framework to investigate structural characteristics of the policy system. A total of 4689 enterprises and 81 policy documents were included. The number of newly added enterprises per year showed an increasing trend. The kernel density analysis revealed that the distribution of enterprises has evolved from the core-area agglomeration structure to a multi-core distribution spreading to the surrounding areas. The distribution direction of enterprises was in the “Northeast-Southwest” direction. Hotspot areas and high-high cluster areas showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing, and were concentrated in the central and eastern regions overall, indicating that there was a dense distribution of intelligent eldercare enterprises in these areas. Policy analysis indicated a disproportionate internal structure. The items with the largest proportion across each dimension are supply-side policy instruments (50.63%), product development and service supply (27.85%), and government departments (31.30%). The development of intelligent eldercare enterprises showed an upward trend from 1982 to 2024, but the spatial distribution displayed regional imbalances. Intelligent eldercare enterprises were densely distributed in the central and eastern regions overall. Subsequent policies should balance the allocation of policy instruments and policy objectives, encourage the construction of cross-regional cooperation, and facilitate the sustained development of the industry.