Tornado Impact and the Built Environment: The Development of an Integrated Risk-Exposure and Spatial Modeling Metric

Tornadoes pose growing threats to both communities and the built environment, yet few studies have quantified how spatial characteristics of the built environment interact with social and economic factors while influencing tornado impacts. This paper introduces an integrated metric that combines tornado risk and exposure to evaluate localized disaster impact. Focusing on Florida’s Panhandle, we examine how housing density and affordability, network connectivity, and urban form efficiency, together with demographic and socioeconomic attributes, shape tornado impacts at the U.S. census block group (CBG) level. To address spatial autocorrelation and non-stationarity, five statistical models were compared, including both global and local spatial regressions. The findings indicate that multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) most effectively captures the spatial heterogeneity of tornado impacts. Built-environment and affordability factors show clear spatial heterogeneity— smart location indexand housing cost burden (h_ami) are positively associated with tornado impact in CBGs near Tallahassee and parts of Pensacola—suggesting amplified impacts in location-efficient urban areas where exposure is concentrated and affordability stress may limit preparedness and recovery. In contrast, network density is negatively associated with the impact of key clusters, consistent with the idea that denser, more redundant road networks can reduce canopy-weighted disruption by providing alternative routes for emergency access and restoration. Overall, these findings can inform our understanding of how the built environment influences tornado exposure, offering critical insights for planners and policymakers seeking to strengthen communities against tornadoes.