The “power to pollute” and “post-neoliberal” climate finance

Abstract Since 2021, Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) provide finance to middle-income countries (MICs) whose energy profile is largely powered by coal—those countries with what we call the “power to pollute.” Using the case of South Africa’s JETP, the most mature of all such agreements, we assess whether the JETP model in fact enables MICs to pursue industrial policy innovations that parallel emergent “post-neoliberal” policy paradigms of rich countries. We draw on analysis of semi-structured interviews with South African policy-makers, policy documents, white papers, and pronouncements at public events between 2021 and 2024. We argue that JETP financing is unlikely to enable the rise of green industrial policies typical of “post-neoliberal” approaches in rich countries, despite the hopes of recipient countries entering into these agreements. This type of financing is instead becoming a mechanism to constrain domestic policy flexibility—and domestic politics—for carbon emissions mitigation, often reinforcing neoliberal principles in practice.