Investigating the Influence of Galactic Cosmic Ray-Modulated Aerosol Optical Depth on Near-Surface Air Temperature Variability over the Past Two Decades

Atmospheric aerosols modulate Earth’s radiation balance through direct effects and through their role as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), contributing to variability in near-surface temperature (NST). Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) further influence aerosol–cloud interactions by enhancing particle formation and growth, but combined aerosol optical depth (AOD)–GCR effects on NST remain poorly constrained across climates. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we examine joint influences on NST anomalies at three neutron-monitoring stations, Oulu, Newark, and Hermanus, during 2000–2022. The sites share similar geomagnetic cutoffs but contrasting climates, enabling separation of ionization from geomagnetic shielding. Multiple linear regression (MLR) captures AOD effects and their modulation by GCR flux. Adding an interaction term (AOD × GCR) improves fit, raising adjusted R2 from 0.22→0.31 (Oulu), 0.37→0.52 (Newark), and 0.69→0.78 (Hermanus). ECMWF reanalysis shows hydrophilic organic matter aerosol (OMA) dominates (0.19, 0.29, 0.41 µg kg−1 at Oulu, Newark and Hermanus), with sulphate elevated at Oulu/Newark and coarse sea salt at Hermanus. Elevated OMA and sulphate at Oulu/Newark imply GCR-enhanced fine CCN and cooling, whereas humid, sea-salt-rich Hermanus favors ion-mediated growth of larger hygroscopic particles that increase longwave trapping and warming. Findings provide site-specific evidence that GCR ionization modulates aerosol processes and contributes to regional NST variability, informing improved parameterizations in climate models.