Study on Flood Season Segmentation and Rationality Examination for Wuluwati Reservoir

Scientific flood season segmentation serves as the foundation for determining the flood-limited operating water levels across different periods, providing crucial support for reservoir flood control safety operations and optimal water resource utilization. Under the background of climate change, the traditional static flood-limited water level management model based on fixed dates struggles to adapt to variations in flood season patterns. This study aims to establish a scientifically sound flood season segmentation scheme, providing a basis for dynamic control of flood-limited water levels across different periods, thereby improving water resource utilization efficiency while ensuring flood control safety. This study focuses on the Wuluwati Reservoir and employs the circular distribution method and the Fisher optimal partition method to conduct its flood season segmentation calculations. First, the circular distribution method is used to analyse the concentration and periodic characteristics of flood occurrences in the basin. Subsequently, the Fisher optimal partition method is applied to perform statistical segmentation of the historical hydrological series. Based on this analysis, the flood season of the Wuluwati Reservoir is comprehensively determined as: the pre-flood season from 1 June to 2 July, the main flood season from 3 July to 27 August, and the post-flood season from 28 August to 30 September. To objectively evaluate the rationality of the segmentation results, the improved Cunderlik method was employed to examine the rationality of 15 segmentation schemes based on relative superiority degree. The results show that the scheme with the main flood season from 3 July to 23 August achieves the highest relative superiority degree (0.930). The comprehensively determined segmentation of this study (3 July–27 August) encompasses this optimal interval, demonstrating that the flood season segmentation for the Wuluwati Reservoir is reasonable and effective.