Influence of Input Data Uncertainty on Cellular Automata-Based Wildfire Spread Simulation

Cellular automata-based wildfire simulation models are widely used to support fire management, risk assessment, and operational decision-making, due to their efficiency and computational advantages. However, the accuracy of these models heavily depends on the quality of input data provided by the user, including the composition and geospatial extend of forest fuels, current meteorological conditions and terrain information. This publication examines how quantitative and spatial input data uncertainties affect the estimates of the impacted areas. Using a series of simulation experiments, inaccurate data are introduced to specific input variables (such as the vegetation type and the fuel moisture content) to reflect realistic levels of uncertainty commonly observed in operational scenarios, where users with different cognitive backgrounds fail to properly identify key characteristics of a fire. Model outputs are then compared using spatial and temporal performance metrics, including the rate of spread and burned area extent. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in fuel models and meteorological inputs exert a dominant influence on simulated fire behavior. Our findings highlight the sensitivity of wildfire simulations to compounded input uncertainties and stress the need for improved in-field data acquisition strategies.