AI-Enabled Remote Sensing Assessment of Cultivated Land Quality and Sustainability Under Climate Stress: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the dynamic and causal effects of climate stress and Artificial Intelligence-enabled agricultural monitoring on cultivated land quality, productivity, and sustainability in Saudi Arabia. Using a balanced panel of region–crop observations covering 13 administrative regions and six major crops over the period 2010–2024, the analysis integrates high-resolution climate variables with remote sensing-based indicators, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, Net Primary Productivity, Water-Use Efficiency, and crop water productivity. A comprehensive econometric framework combining the System Generalized Method of Moments, Difference-in-Differences, and event-study approaches is employed to address persistence, endogeneity, and causal identification. The results show that water availability—captured by soil moisture and precipitation—significantly enhances cultivated land outcomes (coefficients ≈ 0.05–0.11), while heat stress and wind speed exert strong negative effects (coefficients ≈ −0.04 to −0.12), highlighting the vulnerability of arid agricultural systems. Artificial Intelligence-enabled monitoring and smart irrigation adoption consistently improve land quality and productivity, with the largest gains observed in water-use efficiency and crop water productivity. Artificial Intelligence adoption increases water-use efficiency and crop water productivity by approximately 8–10%, while heat stress reduces vegetation indicators by about 9–12%. Event-study evidence confirms that these effects emerge after adoption and persist over time, supporting a causal interpretation. Overall, the findings demonstrate that AI technologies mitigate climate stress primarily through improved water management and adaptive decision-making. The study provides policy-relevant insights aligned with Saudi Vision 2030, emphasizing digital agriculture as a key instrument for sustainable cultivated land governance, climate adaptation, and food security in water-scarce environments.