Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation

This study examines the empirical relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Bali, Indonesia, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing a quantitative ex post facto design, the research utilizes panel data regression to analyze historical data from nine districts over a five-year period, assessing whether increasing income levels contribute to reduced waste generation after a certain threshold. Model diagnostics, including the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests, were conducted using EViews 12 to ensure robustness. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship, contrary to the traditional inverted-U pattern predicted by the EKC. The coefficient for GRDP per capita is negative but statistically insignificant, whereas the squared GRDP term is positive and significant, suggesting that waste generation rises after reaching an income threshold of approximately IDR 15.7 million per capita per year. To enhance model precision, population and hotel room variables were included as proxies for demographic and tourism pressures, respectively. Model selection tests identified the Random Effects Model (REM) as the most appropriate specification. Interestingly, both additional variables exhibited negative relationships with waste generation, implying that districts with higher population density and tourism intensity may possess more efficient waste management systems. Overall, the results suggest that the EKC hypothesis does not fully apply to Bali’s waste dynamics, emphasizing the need for policy-driven, evidence-based waste management strategies-particularly in regions where economic and tourism growth remain major environmental stressors.