Constraining the Trajectory of Glacier Loss in the Cordillera Real (Bolivia) via a Time-Evolving Inventory

Bolivia is home to approximately 20% of the tropical glaciers in South America, which are sensitive indicators of climate change and critical water resources. Glaciers in the Cordillera Real supply meltwater to Bolivia’s administrative capital, La Paz, making it important to accurately assess their evolution. This study reassesses the trajectory of glacier loss in the Cordillera Real between 1992 and 2024. We construct a time-evolving glacier inventory utilizing remote sensing data (Landsat) and techniques to limit the impact of ephemeral snow cover. Our inventory is at a temporal resolution (5- to 8-year spacing) that allows us to assess the trajectory of glacier loss using statistical models. Between 1992 and 2024, the Cordillera Real lost 103.67 ± 9.97 km2 of glacierized area, representing a 42.0 ± 2.1% reduction. We find that glaciers in the Cordillera Real have been retreating at a constant absolute loss rate of 2.99 [2.32, 3.67] km2 yr−1 and a constant fractional loss rate of 1.6 [1.3, 1.9]% yr−1, contrasting with past studies that suggest accelerating or decelerating loss rates. Our findings provide new insights into the current extent of glaciers in the Cordillera Real and their longevity. The time-evolving inventory is available for use in future studies on the evolution of glaciers in the Cordillera Real and the impacts of their continued loss.