Algorithms and Models Implemented in ESTE Tool for Rapid Radiological Consequences Assessment After Nuclear Explosion

This paper describes a new methodology implemented in the ESTE decision support system for evaluating the source term resulting from a nuclear weapon detonation. The methodology is based on a model of a stabilized radioactive mushroom cloud, parameterized as the source term for a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. It includes radionuclide composition, spatial distribution of aerosol and gaseous particles, and particle size distribution. This method is designed for rapid assessment of radiological impacts primarily at medium- and long-range distances, for example, in neighboring countries. The parametrization has been calibrated and adjusted using data from historical nuclear tests, and its performance is evaluated in terms of impacted area, range, and spatial overlap of fallout regions. A comparison is presented between ESTE calculations and field measurements obtained after the British nuclear tests conducted in the 1950s at the Maralinga Range (Australia), using historical ERA5 meteorological reanalyses from ECMWF.