Analysis of Change in Climate Indices of Precipitation in the Godavari River Basin

Evaluating the effects of climate change at the river basin level is crucial for effective water resource management. Godavari River Basin is considered as a research area in this study. 1° × 1° gridded data of precipitation over the Godavari River basin are collected from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). For the future analysis 6 CMIP5 GCMs were used under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to downscale future precipitation. The down scaling analysis indicate that the ANN is performed comparatively better than the MLR. Statistical techniques are used to detect inhomogeneity and trend analysis. Trend and change analysis results indicates significant increasing and decreasing trend in the eastern and western part of the basin respectively and for the future extreme precipitation events are predicted to increase before a break year in both scenarios. Our findings can not only provide the insight into the climate change and climate extreme indices change in the next 100 years in the Godavari River basin, but also provide a reasonable decision-making basis for the basin to cope with climate change. The research analysis can be useful for future planning and development of the Godavari basin.