Success probability prediction framework for blockchain-based software development

In the rapidly evolving business landscape, blockchain technology emerges as a key innovator, enhancing trust, transparency, and security. However, the unique features of blockchain pose challenges in developing blockchain-based software (BSD) systems, demanding improvements in conventional software development processes. This study aims to identify BSD process areas and develop a success probability prediction framework, enhancing BSD process success and progression. We conducted a comprehensive literature survey and a questionnaire-based survey with practitioners to identify BSD process areas and gather training data. The study employs the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) combined with the Naive Bayes Classifier to create a success probability prediction framework for BSD processes. Our research identifies 47 BSD process areas, categorized across five software process improvement (SPI) stages: initial, managed, defined, quantitatively managed, and optimizing. The GWO algorithm facilitates the design of a predictive framework, assessing the success probability of each stage, encompassing various process areas. The framework also prioritizes process areas for each stage, helping practitioners identify critical areas considering implementation cost and success probability. Organizations using BSD can leverage this framework to improve their BSD processes. This study contributes to blockchain technology applications in software development, offering a systematic, predictive approach to augment the effectiveness and success rate of BSD processes.