GeoAI for safeguarding rural cultural heritage: Environmental Downscaling and wildfire exposure mapping in Basilicata, Italy

• Multiscale wildfire exposure mapping for safeguarding rural cultural heritage. • Automated harmonisation and spatial downscaling of environmental data with Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction. • Integration of GeoAI and spatial analysis for fire occurrence pattern modelling and cultural heritage exposure. • Proposal of a Total Exposure Index (TEI) to support heritage-oriented prevention and planning. Rural cultural heritage faces escalating threats, notably the rising incidence of wildfires, driven by climate change and evolving land-use dynamics. This study presents a GeoAI framework that combines spatial analysis and environmental data downscaling to model wildfire distribution and quantify heritage site exposure. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in capturing real spatial patterns of exposure and providing tools and indicators to support territorial management and planning for the protection of rural cultural heritage. Overall, the findings reveal the close interplay between cultural landscapes and ecological processes, highlighting the need for integrated environmental and heritage governance to enhance resilience.