Synthesis of environmental and socioeconomic outcomes of Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative for sustainability

Environmental decline, deforestation, and climate susceptibility persist in hindering sustainable progress in Ethiopia and throughout the Global South. The Green Legacy Initiative (GLI) seeks to address the intertwined issues of land degradation, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, and climate change by implementing extensive tree planting and ecosystem restoration. However, discussions continue over the socio-economic compromises, efficiency, and sustainability of these top-down environmental initiatives. This review synthesizes data from 38 carefully selected studies, extracted from 302 records, using a resource and behavioral economics approach to assess whether the GLI constitutes an economically efficient and socially equitable strategy for environmental restoration. A structured PRISMA-based review protocol was employed to select 38 peer-reviewed articles (2000–2024) that met strict inclusion and exclusion criteria from Scopus, Web of Science, and government databases. The articles were analyzed using thematic synthesis and a comparative matrix of environmental, economic, and social outcomes, with particular attention to trade-offs between short-term private costs and long-term public benefits. Leveraging resource economics, public goods theory, externality theory, and behavioral economics, the review reconceptualizes the GLI as not just an ecological initiative but also a measure that addresses market failure stemming from the insufficient provision of environmental public goods. The results show that the GLI has led to enhanced vegetation cover, stabilized soil, and specific livelihood advantages; however, these improvements are inconsistent and limited by poor seedling survival, inadequate post-planting management, and restricted monitoring of carbon storage. Economic trade-offs are clear between immediate household expenses and long-term societal benefits, between private and public returns, and between national efficiency gains and local equity concerns, especially for land-deprived farmers and women. A significant barrier to thorough economic assessment is the absence of precise data on survival rates, hydrological effects, and credible ecosystem service values, hindering cost–benefit analysis and natural capital accounting. The Green Legacy Initiative has considerable potential to promote Ethiopia's environmental and socio-economic objectives. It needs to shift from a quantitative tree-planting approach to a qualitative ecosystem restoration framework grounded in inclusion, ecological appropriateness, and participatory governance. Theoretical perspectives emphasize the importance of reconciling environmental externalities with socio-economic opportunity costs and behavioral limitations. The integration and scaling of policies should be guided by a comprehensive economic perspective, drawing on public goods theory, the valuation of externalities, and behavioral insights to improve social welfare outcomes.