Low-carbon electricity generation through demand and carbon neutrality prediction 2035 of a transitional economy: decomposition and LEAP learning approaches

The precise forecasting of total electricity generation and consumption can provide data support for framing the sustainable development planning of a developing nation. The study framework is composed of two phases: electricity generation and carbon mitigation framework and structure and logical procedures. This study develops decomposition and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system methods and analyzes electricity and CO 2 emission mitigation scenarios for 2025–2035 under Energy Vision 2035, including policy implementation, carbon management, and intensity effects. Six main driving factors, including low-carbon structure, electricity generation intensity, energy security, energy intensity, carbon productivity, and CO 2 emissions for four decades, are investigated. The results show that (i) low-carbon electricity presents a rising trend in the current phase, which means the renewable electricity structure is undergoing development; (ii) the carbon production factor shows the Pakistan's economy is improving due to substantial advancements in low-carbon electricity generation, mitigating CO 2 emissions; (iii) electricity demand scenarios show that renewable, hydro, and nuclear electricity are major contributing resources and are lowering CO 2 emissions; (iv) CO 2 emission mitigation scenarios from 2025 to 2035 indicate that CO 2 will be cut by 63.40%, showing that low-carbon electricity resources may produce relative efficiencies in the electricity sector; and, finally, and (v) the development of low-carbon electricity generation and decarbonization could be ensured by regulating carbon mitigation policies and technical development.