Reclaiming abandoned croplands to adapt wheat production to a warmer world

Abstract Wheat contributes ~20% of global dietary calories. Climate change threatens production, but adaptation is possible by expanding cultivation into abandoned croplands. Here we assess the potential of recultivating abandoned croplands for winter wheat, which accounts for over 75% of global wheat production. Using machine learning models trained on historical records (1982–2015), we relate climate and management factors to yields and project production across currently planted and abandoned croplands under 3 °C warming. Recultivating 30.8 million hectares of abandoned croplands across North America, Europe, and Asia could produce 110 million tonnes of winter wheat annually (20% of current production). Prioritizing high-yield regions such as northern China, Germany, and France could achieve 70% of this potential using only 50% of the land. Our findings highlight target areas where reclaiming abandoned croplands offers a possible climate adaptation strategy for sustaining wheat production in a warming world.