Learning from the past multi-hazard events. Forensic analysis application for 2018 Kerala Floods

In 2018, Kerala, India, experienced flooding caused by unprecedented monsoonal rainfall and the release of excess water from 37 dams, which compounded vulnerabilities across physical, environmental, socio-cultural, economic and institutional dimensions. With a 100-year return period, this disaster affected 14 districts of Kerala and displaced over 1.4 million people, claiming more than 500 lives. Beyond the immediate human and infrastructural losses, the flood triggered cascading hazards such as landslides and soil erosion, causing long-term damage to agricultural productivity, critical infrastructure and ecosystems. Contaminated floodwaters led to a surge in waterborne diseases and mental health crises among the affected populations.<br/><br/>In the context of the PARATUS project, we developed a forensic approach based on three specific methodologies: Investigation of Disasters (FORIN), Post Event Review Capability (PERC), and Detecting Disaster Root Causes (DKKV). PARATUS approach applies a combination of these three forensic analyses to a set of learning case studies drawn from selected past disaster events to analyze and navigate the complexity of disaster impacts across diverse contexts.<br/><br/>The forensic analysis investigates the pre-existing vulnerabilities, including inadequate urban planning, poor infrastructure maintenance, and fragmented land use practices, which are exacerbating the impacts of the floods. The marginalised communities, with limited access to resources, bore the brunt of the catastrophe. The economic fallout included a 7.7% decline in activity during the disaster, with significant losses to key sectors such as agriculture and plantations, disrupting livelihoods and regional stability. The immediate response to the disaster involved large-scale rescue and relief operations coordinated by national forces, local governments and volunteers, leveraging early warning systems and social media for real-time updates. While these efforts saved lives and provided temporary relief, recovery and reconstruction efforts faced delays due to financial constraints and bureaucratic inefficiencies.<br/><br/>In the aftermath of the Kerala floods, resilience-building initiatives were implemented, including enhanced disaster management plans, land-use mapping, and improved hydro-meteorological warning systems. However, it was found in the forensic assessment that persistent vulnerabilities, particularly among marginalised groups, highlight the need for inclusive governance and equitable distribution of resources to mitigate future risks. This case study underscores the importance of integrating socio- environmental systems with robust institutional frameworks to build resilience against extreme climate events.