Centralization in the BJP

This paper examines the effects of organizational centralization on two key dimensions of Indian politics within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): the descriptive representation of marginalized social groups and the configuration of local party systems. While comparative research, particularly from Western democracies, suggests that centralized candidate selection can promote inclusion by bypassing local elites, we test this claim in the context of India’s increasingly centralized ruling party. Using a dataset on candidate renomination from 1984 to 2019, we show that the BJP became significantly more centralized in the post-2014 period. We assess whether this organizational shift led to greater representation of women and lower-caste candidates, particularly in seats where sitting MPs were replaced. While some individual substitutions suggest a modest attempt at broadening representation—such as replacing upper-caste male incumbents with lower caste or female candidates—these changes were neither systematic nor widespread. Further, aggregate analysis of turnout, electoral volatility, and party-system fragmentation at the constituency level shows little evidence that such representational shifts had major systemic effects. Nevertheless, constituencies—where both caste and gender of the BJP candidate changed in more inclusive directions—did exhibit reduced party system fragmentation, suggesting some consolidation of voter support. Our findings challenge the assumption that centralization inherently promotes inclusion, and they highlight the need to theorize intra-party dynamics and representational outcomes within the specific institutional and social contexts of the Global South.