Adaptation of Vologda Oblast to Climate Change: Management, Economics, and Infrastructure

Global climate change is having a significant impact on Russia, where warming is occurring 2.5 times faster than the global average, leading to an increase in the number of hazardous weather events and damage to the economy, infrastructure, and population. The government is implementing a two-stage national adaptation plan, but most regional plans are formal in nature and suffer from a lack of data, interdepartmental cooperation, and involvement of business and science. At the same time, the effectiveness of adaptation must take into account not only the intensity of climate impacts, but also the vulnerability of territories and their potential for adaptation. Using Vologda Oblast as an example, this article assesses the response and adaptation effectiveness of key economic sectors in the region, including governance, housing and utilities, agriculture, and forestry, to climate change. The study is based on comprehensive data that makes it possible to examine the problem from various perspectives: climatic, managerial, economic, and discursive. The information base for the study consisted of: (1) observation data from the archives of VNIIGMI-MCD meteorological stations; (2) heating season parameters for municipalities of the region; (3) interviews conducted by the authors during an expedition to Vologda Oblast in fall 2024; (4) materials from official and information portals and social networks of the region. The study revealed a discrepancy between the approved regional climate change adaptation plan and actual practice. The climate risks indicated in the plan do not fully correspond to the actual data of Roshydromet, forecast estimates are absent, and the damage assessment is of a general nature. Within the region, the manifestations of climate change are heterogeneous: significant differences are noticeable between the western and eastern districts, which leads to a more active spread of adaptation practices among economic entities in the western districts of the region than in the central and eastern districts. At the same time, the adaptation measures applied by economic entities are aimed to a greater extent at minimizing damage than at developing adaptation mechanisms based on an assessment of the scale of the impact of climate change.