How Empathy and Partisanship Affected Attitude Changes Following the Assassination of Shinzo Abe: Evidence from Panel Surveys

Abstract Shinzo Abe, the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s postwar history, was assassinated on July 8, 2022, triggering widespread social reactions and shifts in public opinion. This study investigates the effects of the assassination on attitudes toward Abe using panel data from before and after the assassination. Our results suggest that, overall, attitudes toward Abe significantly improved after the assassination, and that the extent of attitude change varied between groups. Specifically, we find that individuals with strong empathy were more likely to improve their attitude toward Abe, indicating a pattern of emotion-driven attitude change. Our analysis also suggests that partisanship may have shaped individuals’ attitude changes. Specifically, individuals with opposing party preferences were more resistant to attitude change, whereas partisan proximity facilitated positive reassessments. Moreover, the influence of partisanship on attitude change depended on its intensity. Individuals without sustained and strong party preferences were more susceptible to attitude change following the assassination. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence for attitude changes due to political violence and has implications for our understanding of the mechanisms of such attitude changes.