Material flow analysis of present and projected production chains of US nickel and cobalt for lithium-ion batteries

Nickel and cobalt are essential for production of many lithium-ion battery chemistries, yet the United States lacks secure domestic supply chains for these metals. This study is the first to apply material flow analysis to quantify US nickel and cobalt resources, proposed mining and refining projects, trade flows, and battery manufacturing demand. Results show that while US in-ground resources are significant (15,348 kt Ni; 1,378 kt Co), proposed annual production (105 kt Ni; 15 kt Co), which includes a recycling estimate, remains far below battery manufacturing requirements (111 kt Ni and 38 kt Co at 2024 capacity; up to 391 kt Ni and 134 kt Co projected by 2030). The most critical constraint is the absence of US refining capacity, which forces reliance on imported intermediates. Refining investment, recycling scale-up, by-product recovery, and trade strategy are all potential solutions for a resilient battery supply chain. • Material flow analysis maps US nickel and cobalt production chains for EV batteries • Mining-refining pathways are mapped to examine potential output • Absence of domestic refining leads to import reliance • Proposed US mining-refining production cannot meet projected battery demand • International cooperation, recycling, and by-product recovery are possible solutions