The Nexus Between Perceived and Scientific Weather Patterns and Its Effects on Cereal Crop Production in Manyoni District, Tanzania

This study examines the nexus between perceived and scientific weather patterns, and its effects on cereal crop production in Manyoni District; and involved 157 participants. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected through a mixed methods research approach. The data were collected through a household survey, FGDs, in-depth interviews and documentary review methods for triangulation and complementarity purposes. The quantitative data were analysed through descriptive and inferential statistics with IBM SPSS (version 27) and Microsoft Excel Office (version 2007). The results indicate that smallholder farmers perceived that rainfall had been fluctuating with increasing trends, while temperature and wind had been in increasing trends. The archival data on rainfall and temperature indicate both decreasing and increasing trends, respectively. Also, the findings indicate fluctuating patterns with slightly increasing trends for maize and sorghum yields, and decreasing trends in millet/barley production: all of which are highly associated with changes in temperature and rainfall. However, despite fluctuating rainfall and increasing temperature trends, the production of both maize and sorghum is rising; implying that despite the changes in climate variables in the study area, effective adaptive strategies have contributed to the noted increase in these cereal yields. This calls for support to smallholder farmers to shield the consequences of unpredictable weather during the critical periods of growing cereals.