The economics of elusive methane diplomacy: forecasting 2030 emissions in China, India, and Russia

Reduction of anthropogenic methane emissions poses a substantial imperative in the context of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, due to the detrimental effects of methane reduction policies on economic growth, public finance, social stability, vulnerable rural communities and employment, countries do not show strong political will on this issue, producing negative externalities on a global scale. To tackle this, 160 countries, which account for 59% of the emissions, signed the Global Methane Pledge, promising to reduce their emissions by 30% by 2030 relative to their 2020 levels. However, China, India, and Russia—the first, third, and fourth largest emitters, respectively—did not join the commitment. This paper aims to estimate methane emissions for these countries and elucidate the economic factors impeding their mitigation. Using annual data from Climate Watch (1990-2022), we apply two univariate machine learning forecasting methods—Autometrics and XGBoost—to project emissions through 2030. Our baseline projections reveal that methane emissions for all three countries will continue to increase, totaling 2896 MtCO2e in 2030. Our 2030 estimates indicate that, collectively, methane emissions from these three countries will be 7.04% above 2020 levels. Fossil fuel trade relationships between these countries, low labor productivity, and social costs related to energy and employment are the main explanatory factors. Our findings highlight the significant gap between global commitments and the economic realities of the major emitters. Policy implications state the urgency of prioritizing energy-sector methane abatement as the least costly way of combatting global warming and advancing methane diplomacy to facilitate equitable technology transfer and coordination strategies.