Impacts from sector-specific energy policies on mortality: Co-benefits and socioeconomic disparities across three midwestern states in the year 2050

Assessments on effects of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have shown wide-ranging health and exposure co-benefits in the United States (U.S.). However, the benefits of these policies may not be shared equally, and few studies have investigated differences in impacts across populations. We estimated exposure, health, and monetary benefits for various sociodemographic subpopulations, under several environmental justice indices, across three midwestern states (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) at the census tract level. We estimated changes to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations across three sector-specific energy policy scenarios (high natural gas use, high electric vehicle uptake, building energy efficiency) and a business-as-usual policy case. Health impact function analyses were used to determine census-tract level changes in mortality, and value of statistical life (VSL) was used to determine the associated monetary impacts. All energy policies were estimated to reduce PM_2.5 concentrations in 2050 compared to 2010 reference levels (1.55 to 1.70 μg/m³ across policy projections, with avoided mortalities of 6010 (95% confidence interval 4093, 7396) to 6560 (4469, 8072), and mortality savings of $69.115 to $75.440 billion, with cost per capita between $2456 and $2681). Several subpopulations, including those with high educational isolation, the Black population, and those making <$75,000/year, had higher baseline expected mortality and higher projected avoided mortality compared to the overall population, indicating strong benefits for these groups. Our findings highlight the ability of climate change mitigation strategies to reduce exposure and mortalities in the Midwestern U.S. while directly benefitting certain disadvantaged populations.