Possible Economic Impacts from aMPV and HPAI in the Iowa Turkey Industry

We assess the potential economic impacts to the state of Iowa from outbreaks of Avian Metapneumovirus (aMPV) and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the Iowa turkey industry. We use an input-output model assessing the direct impact at the processing level for a 5% and a 30% decline in processing activity from the diseases and the indirect and induced impacts at the turkey production level, as well as other sectors of the Iowa economy. The results show a statewide loss in employment of 182 jobs, $72 million in revenue, and $4 million in tax revenues in the 5% scenario, and over 1,000 lost jobs, $434 million in lost revenue, and $24 million in lost tax revenues in the 30% scenario. Aside from the losses directly attributable to the turkey processing industry, approximately 24% of total sales losses would be to the turkey farming industry in Iowa, or, from about $17 million in the 5% scenario to $105 million in the 30% scenario. The impacts would be especially felt in the counties of Buena Vista and Muscatine where the state’s two turkey processors are located, but the effects are statewide.