Assessing The Role of Land Use Change in Flood Risk and Community-Based Preparedness in Mitigating Disaster Risk in Dilimi Catchment

Urban communities in sub-Saharan Africa are becoming increasingly vulnerable to persistent and growing flooding due to the rapid changes in land use as well as the lack of disaster preparedness. The research paper analyses land use/land cover change and the dynamics of flood risk coupled with community-based disaster preparedness in the Dilimi catchment of Jos North, Plateau State, Nigeria, with reference to the susceptible communities of Rikkos and Gangare. The mixed-methods research design was adopted and combined the geospatial analysis of satellite imagery (20032023), hydrological catchment modeling, quantitative survey of 195 households, secondary data analysis on floods (20122024), and qualitative focus group discussions. The analysis of land use/land covering showed the following changes in the landscape during the 20-year period: the built-up territories grew by 141.8% (32.24 km 2 to 13.33 km 2), and the vegetation cover has also decreased by 64.8% (40.14 km 2 to 14.14 km 2). This urbanization continued to gravitate along riparian systems, with urbanized zones closely bordering river lines by 2023 and this change fundamentally changed the hydrology of catchments and increased the risk of floods. A drainage density study found main river channel high-concentration areas as being especially prone to flood. The secondary flood information recorded a significant jump in community outcomes between the years 2012 and 2024, as the number of people affected decreased to 1,647 to 15 in Rikkos and 839 to 15 in Gangare, respectively, and no fatality, displacements or property damage were recorded by 2024. Although a small percentage (33.8) of the respondents attended formal simulation exercises, the two communities showed high levels of preparedness (5070%), which were attributed to experiential learning due to local community floods, local knowledge, and awareness campaigns as well as community-based initiatives such as monthly community sanitation and drainage clearance. A statistically significant correlation between the participation in the simulation exercise and the increased preparedness was confirmed by chi-square analysis (p = 0.001). Nevertheless, there are still critical issues such as the lack of technical training (38.9%), the lack of flood control facilities (35.4%), loss of disaster management equipment, and the intergenerational knowledge transfer. The research finds that although the practice of experiential learning has a major positive impact on the resilience of a community, sustainable management of the flood risk should incorporate synergistic strategies that comprise the restoration of riparian zones, urban planning, institutionalized training and delivery of disaster management infrastructure. It is suggested to employ an integrated catchment management framework that will balance scientific hydrological analysis and community based knowledge in an effort to govern flood risk akin to a more effective flood risk management in watersheds which are rapidly urbanizing.