Multiscale Assessment of Agricultural Expansion Potential in Degraded Pasturelands in Brazil Using Geospatial Data

Abstract. This study aimed to assess the potential for agricultural expansion into pasture areas with varying degrees of degradation in Brazil, providing both quantitative and spatial analyses at different scales – national, biome, microregion, and municipality. The proposed method was based on remote sensing data analysis and on data integration on a geographic information system to map degraded pasturelands, lands with natural agricultural suitability, infrastructure (roads and warehouses), croplands, climate risk agricultural zoning, and legal or environmental constraints posed by indigenous territories, Quilombola communities, agrarian settlements, and conservation units. Results indicate that approximately 28 million hectares of moderately to severely degraded pastures present good to high potential for conversion into croplands, considering the base year of 2022. The Cerrado biome demonstrated the highest potential, accounting for about 14.5 million hectares. The ten municipalities selected by the Digital Agriculture Development Science Center (Semear Digital) initiative and their corresponding microregions presented a total of 34.1 thousand hectares and 266.5 thousand hectares, respectively. The present approach enabled the quantification and spatialization of agricultural potential through a multiscale approach, providing support for decision-making in the formulation of public policies aimed at the restoration of degraded areas.