Regional heterogeneity of transport energy rebound effects

• Logistical rebound reduces the effectiveness of energy efficiency in South America. • Dominant road networks intensify consumption in countries like Brazil and Chile. • Integrated and modal policies are essential to mitigate rebound effects. • Logistics emerges as a central point in the sustainable energy transition. The pursuit of energy sustainability in South America has led to major efficiency investments in the transport sector, a key energy consumer. However, these gains are often offset by the transport energy rebound effect, whereby efficiency improvements paradoxically stimulate greater demand for transport services. This study examines direct and indirect rebounds across ten South American countries using log-linear econometric models and elasticity analysis. Results reveal marked regional heterogeneity, ranging from super conservation to backfire, shaped by infrastructure deficits, institutional fragility, and strong reliance on road-based systems. The findings highlight the risks of depending solely on technological advancements without structural or regulatory measures. The study recommends integrated policy frameworks involving demand-side regulation, targeted subsidies, modal shifts, and comprehensive externality pricing. By providing a systemic interpretation of rebound dynamics, the research offers insights for designing resilient, low-carbon transport strategies aligned with climate commitments.