Projecting future distribution of Glycyrrhiza uralensis under climate change: implications for conservation and sustainable management

Climate change poses a significant threat to global ecosystems by altering the geographical distribution of plant species. Glycyrrhiza uralensis, a plant of considerable economic importance, is distributed widely across arid and semi-arid regions. Understanding how its habitat suitability and distribution may shift in response to climate change is crucial for its sustainable management and conservation. This study used species distribution modeling to project current and future distribution patterns of G. uralensis in China and Mongolia, providing a scientific basis for its resource assessment and conservation. The present study used species occurrence data for G. uralensis from field surveys conducted in Mongolia and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Using the biomod2 package in R, species distribution models were developed to project current and future habitat suitability for G. uralensis under various climate change scenarios. The models were used to assess potential shifts in suitable range and to identify key environmental factors influencing the distribution. The models indicated that under current climatic conditions, areas suitable for G. uralensis shifted from highly suitable to moderately and lowly suitable regions. The highly suitable areas were fragmented, covering approximately 250,028 km2. Altitude, mean annual precipitation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter had a significant impact on the distribution of habitats suitable for G. uralensis, whereas soil-related variables had a relatively minor impact. Under the different future scenarios, the distribution of G. uralensis showed a consistent significantly decreasing trend. The most pronounced trend of continuous habitat reduction was observed under the SSP585 scenario. Even under the more optimistic SSP126 scenario, habitats are projected to decrease substantially, highlighting the sustained negative impact of climate change on the area of distribution of G. uralensis regardless of the emission scenario. The findings suggest that both China and Mongolia possess stable and extensive habitats suitable for G. uralensis. Particularly, Mongolia potentially provides a critical geographical resource for sustainable management and conservation of the species under a changing climate. The present study highlights the imperative for transboundary cooperation between China and Mongolia in the development of appropriate strategies for G. uralensis resource utilization, conservation, and sustainable management.