Numerical Modelling of Urban Air Pollution from Residential Heating: A Case Study of Skopje

Urban air pollution during winter is a major challenge in many cities, where emissions from residential heating lead to elevated particulate matter levels. Atmospheric dispersion modelling supports the understanding of spatial and temporal pollution behavior and enables the assessment of source contributions relevant for targeted mitigation. In this study, the ADMS-Urban dispersion model was applied to simulate hourly PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations across the city of Skopje, North Macedonia. Residential heating was the focus of the analysis, while emissions from road traffic and industrial activities were also included to ensure a realistic representation of the urban emission environment. A representative winter day was analyzed to examine the influence of wind patterns and diurnal boundary-layer height variability on particulate matter dispersion. Modelled concentrations were evaluated against measurements from urban air quality monitoring stations and showed good agreement in reproducing both night-time accumulation and daytime dispersion. The results indicate that household heating using biomass is the dominant contributor to wintertime particulate matter emissions, with PM10 prevailing over PM2.5. These findings underline the need for targeted emission reduction measures in the residential heating sector and demonstrate the usefulness of short-term dispersion modelling for supporting air quality management strategies in Skopje.