The role of green hydrogen imports under demand and supply uncertainties in Europe

To achieve climate neutrality, Europe’s hydrogen strategy combines domestic green hydrogen production with green hydrogen imports, but the optimal balance remains uncertain. This study applies the stochastic energy system model EMPIRE, coupled with sectoral demand projections, to quantify how variable renewable energy source (VRES) deployment trajectories and hydrogen demand pathways jointly shape Europe’s import requirements. Results show that import requirements in 2050 could range from 7.5 to 55 Mton/yr, depending on scenario developments. The pace of VRES expansion is the dominant driver, and even moderate acceleration beyond historical trends reduces cumulative hydrogen imports by 22%–33%, while stronger acceleration can largely eliminate structural import dependence, especially under a direct electrification pathway. High hydrogen demand consistent with REPowerEU targets is difficult to supply cost-effectively in the near term without substantial imports and some fossil-based hydrogen production. Imports are found to benefit short-term capacity building and to diversify against weather-induced variability, but their marginal value declines as renewable expansion and direct electrification advance. • Multi-model stochastic optimisation framework capturing supply/demand uncertainties. • Hydrogen import requirements range from 7.5 to 55 Mton in 2050. • Direct electrification and VRES deliver low-cost and high energy independence. • International hydrogen imports provide value in capacity building and diversification.