Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Alpine Treeline Ecotone in Response to Climate Warming Across the Eastern Slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Mountain ecosystems are susceptible to climate change, and alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) represent one of the significant responsive indicators of climate-driven environmental change. This study examines long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of the ATE across the Eastern Slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains (ESCR) from 1984 to 2023, with the objective of assessing whether regional climate warming has influenced ATE extent and elevation across different aspects and watersheds. Multi-decadal Landsat imagery, ERA5-Land temperature data, and topographic variables were integrated within a Google Earth Engine (GEE) framework to map ATEs using the Alpine Treeline Ecotone Index (ATEI), a probabilistic approach designed to capture transitional vegetation zones. Temporal trends were evaluated using non-parametric statistics, correlation analyses, and watershed- and aspect-based comparisons. Results indicate that the total alpine treeline ecotone (ATE) area in the ESCR was approximately 13.3% larger in 2023 than in 1984. However, the temporal evolution of ATE extent and elevation was non-monotonic, and linear trend analyses did not detect statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends over the full study period. ATE elevation and expansion exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with greater changes occurring on north- and northwest-facing slopes and within selected watersheds. In contrast, summer (July–September) temperatures increased significantly (+2.84 °C), exceeding global land-only warming rates, and vegetation greenness (NDVI) showed a strong, statistically significant positive relationship with temperature. These findings show that while climate warming has clearly increased vegetation productivity, elevational ATE dynamics remain spatially heterogeneous and temporally non-synchronous with summer temperature trends.