National-Scale Conservation Gaps and Priority Areas for Invasive Plant Control in China: An Integrated MaxEnt-InVEST Framework

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose a severe and escalating threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services in China. However, a systematic nationwide assessment that identifies invasion hotspots, quantifies their overlap with protected area networks, and pinpoints critical conservation gaps is still lacking. This hinders the development of spatially targeted management strategies. To address this, we developed an integrated analytical framework coupling the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with the InVEST habitat quality model. Using a high-resolution, county-level distribution database of 293 IAPs, we mapped potential species richness and habitat degradation across China. The geo-detector model was further employed to identify the primary environmental factors and their interactions. Spatial overlay analysis was conducted to delineate core invasion habitats (areas of high invasion suitability and high degradation) and assess their coverage within China's national nature reserves. Nighttime light intensity (DMSP, 34.39%), annual precipitation (Bio12, 14.16%), and mean diurnal range (Bio2, 11.82%) were the factors with the highest contribution in the model, highlighting the statistical interaction between anthropogenic pressure and climatic conditions. The core invasion habitat spanned 20.10 × 10⁴ km², predominantly (66.04%) concentrated in high-intensity human disturbance zones. Notably, only 11.18% of this core habitat falls within existing national nature reserves, revealing a vast conservation gap of 17.85 × 10⁴ km². Our results indicate a profound spatial mismatch between invasion hotspots and the current protected area network in China. We prioritize southeastern coastal urban agglomerations-characterized by high anthropogenic pressure (DMSP), high precipitation (Bio12), and low diurnal temperature range (Bio2)-for immediate monitoring and intervention. This integrated assessment provides a national-scale, spatially explicit prediction of invasion risk for 293 plant species in China, and offers an evidence-based decision-support tool for optimizing invasive species management and biodiversity conservation.