Performance results of communication based train control (CBTC) on the Copenhagen suburban railways

The Danish national railway infrastructure operator, Banedanmark, replaced the signals on a 171 km suburban railway network with CBTC (Communications Based Train Control) over a six-year period from 2016 to 2022. A detailed statistical analysis of the public traffic disruption data from 2015 to 2024 finds that the disruptions due to signals have been reduced by approximately 57%. The cost of the new technology is approximately balanced by the social cost savings in reduction of passenger delays.The analysis clearly shows the effect of signal technology on punctuality, and other external effects are either clearly documented or shown to not be significant. The measured effect of the CBTC installation is relatively free from the influence of changes in traffic or other changes in technology. CBTC does appear to shift the source of disruption from track hardware to rolling stock.