Comparative Forecasting of Electricity Load and Generation in Türkiye Using Prophet, XGBoost, and Deep Neural Networks

Accurate electricity load forecasting has become increasingly challenging in Türkiye due to rapid structural changes in the power system driven by renewable energy expansion. Between 2016 and 2022, solar capacity increased by 130% and wind generation by 83%, resulting in renewable-induced variability exceeding 160%. To assess how different forecasting approaches respond to this evolving environment, Facebook Prophet, XGBoost, and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) were evaluated using more than 55,000 hourly load observations under a strictly chronological out-of-sample validation framework. The comparative analysis reveals substantial differences in model performance. XGBoost achieved the highest forecasting accuracy, with a Mean Absolute Error of 981.48 MWh, a Root Mean Squared Error of 1344.15 MWh, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 2.72%, while effectively capturing rapid intraday variations and maintaining peak deviations within ±1100 MWh. DNN models delivered competitive overall accuracy (MAE: 997.82 MWh; MAPE: 2.77%) but exhibited a tendency to smooth temporal variations, leading to an underestimation of extreme winter peaks by up to 4100 MWh. In contrast, Prophet showed limited adaptability to the observed structural volatility, producing errors nearly seven times higher than XGBoost (MAE: 7041.79 MWh; RMSE: 8718.14 MWh). Based on these findings, a layered forecasting framework is proposed, employing XGBoost for short-term operational dispatch and reserving statistical models for long-term planning and policy analysis.