Modeling Spatial Patterns of Soil Erosion Based on Land Use Changes and Landscape Fragmentation in Arid Regions

Soil erosion is a growing environmental problem in arid regions, where land-use changes and landscape fragmentation directly influence land degradation. This study estimated soil loss in the Tarabillas sub-basin, located in the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico. To this end, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) was applied and integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. Landsat TM and OLI satellite imagery were classified through supervised techniques, achieving overall accuracies above 89%. The analysis was supported by comparing erosion patterns associated with land-use changes occurring during the 1990–2021 period, assessed through cross-tabulation matrices and landscape metrics. The results show that although the average erosion potential of the sub-basin remained constant at approximately 12.45 t ha−1 yr−1, erosion redistributed spatially, concentrating in areas where agriculture has replaced natural vegetation. Shrublands and grasslands continue to dominate the high erosion categories due to their wide spatial extent and high erodibility. These findings highlight that fragmented agricultural expansion constitutes the main driver of landscape transformation and soil vulnerability, emphasizing the importance of integrating remote sensing, GIS, and empirical models to support sustainable land management in arid regions.