Analysis of Structural Changes in the Mobile-base E-commerce Market

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify any structural change and analyze detailed aspects of the e-commerce market in Korea.Methods: The Cumulative Sum(CUSUM) test was conducted with time-series data including e-commerce transaction value and user data including MAU, usage time, download, etc. from 2015 to 2024. Transaction value data were aggregated solely from transactions made through mobile applications, and user data were collected using a mobile application data analysis platform. Based on the results of the CUSUM test, detailed aspects of user data at the structural change points were analyzed.Results: The results of this study confirmed three structural change points in the last 10 years of Korea’s e-commerce market. The first structural change was confirmed in early 2018. The second structural change was identified in late December 2020, and the third occurred around the end of 2023. The number of active users showed a slightly different pattern compared to the three structural changes, with the number of users growing significantly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and then fluctuating repeatedly. Usage time exhibited somewhat different patterns between the time per user and the time per session. The time per user increased significantly until early 2018 but has been steadily decreasing since then. In contrast, the time per session continuously decreased until early 2018, then showed a slight upward trend immediately after the COVID-19 outbreak but has been steadily decreasing since.Conclusion: The size of Korea's e-commerce market has demonstrated consistent growth over the past decade, undergoing significant structural transformations. The results of this study confirm that the growth of the e-commerce market has been accompanied by structural changes. Notably, while the number of users, downloads, and retention rates fluctuate over time, the usage time exhibits a continuous decrease. It seems that the time users spend on e-commerce applications is getting shorter, which explains the industry’s adoption of various strategies, such as gamification, to increase user’s time spent on applications.