Thermal influence on life history traits and population parameters of the olive moth, Prays oleae (Bernard) (Lepidoptera: Praydidae): implications for temperature-based pest management

Introduction The olive moth, Prays oleae (Bernard) (Lepidoptera: Praydidae), is a major pest of olive crops worldwide. Methods This study examined the effects of constant temperatures (15–35 °C) on its development, survival, and reproduction, and evaluated nine temperature-dependent models (Linear, Lactin-2, β type, Brière-1 and 2, Polynomial, Shi, SSI, and Taylor). Results and discussion Developmental duration decreased with temperature, with egg incubation ranging from 14.1 days at 15 °C to 2.6 ± 0.1 days at 35 °C, pre-adult development ranging from 64.9 days (male) and 68.3 days (female) at 15 °C to 27.1 days and 27.8 days at 35 °C, with males generally developing faster than females except at 28 and 32 °C, and adult life span declining from 76.8–81.2 days at 15 °C to 34.1–35.4 days at 32 °C. Survival followed a bell-shaped pattern, peaking at 25 °C for eggs (79.93%), larvae (90.87%), and pupae (66.0%). Kaplan–Meier analysis indicated faster mortality at higher temperatures (LT 50 = 35 days at 32 °C vs. 79 days at 15 °C). Pupal weight decreased with temperature, with females consistently heavier than males (15 °C: 7.50 vs. 6.40 mg; 32 °C: 4.88 vs. 4.40 mg). Pupal deformities were marginal (3.1–10.8%), whereas adult deformities increased at temperature extremes (14.9–19.8%). Fecundity peaked at 25 °C (380.7 eggs/female), oviposition was longest at 25 °C (12.6 days), and pre-oviposition decreased from 4.9 days (15 °C) to 1.6 days (32 °C). Model evaluation showed Brière-2 provided the most biologically realistic thermal thresholds ( T L = 4.3–15 °C, T opt = 28–34 °C, T H = 37.8–42.9 °C). Conclusion Overall, P. oleae develops and reproduces optimally at 25–28 °C, providing critical data for predicting population dynamics and guiding temperature-based management strategies in olive orchards.