Metabolism pathway-based subtyping in pancreatic adenocarcinoma: an integrated study by bulk RNA-sequence and machine learning algorithms

Background: Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAAD) is highly aggressive, and its tumor microenvironment has significant metabolic and immune microenvironment complexity and genomic instability. In this study, by integrating the metabolic pathway activity score and clinical data, we constructed a novel risk assessment model to reveal the unique biological behavior and clinical significance behind different PAAD subtypes. Methods: In this study, the transcriptome and clinical data of TCGA and GSE57495 databases were integrated to explore the interaction between metabolic pathways. Based on unsupervised clustering analysis of pathway activity and survival prognosis, patients with PAAD were classified into metabolic subtypes with significant prognostic differences. Subsequently, we assessed the heterogeneity of these subtypes in terms of clinical outcomes, genomic characteristics, and immune microenvironment composition. Based on the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) among metabolic subtypes, a clinical prognostic risk model and nomogram were constructed, which were double-validated by GSE57495-independent cohort and GSE57495 + TCGA-PAAD combined cohort. Finally, the correlations between risk scores (RSs) and signaling pathway activity and tumor immune microenvironment characteristics were evaluated. Results: Based on metabolic pathway correlation and prognostic information, 240 patients in the TCGA-PAAD and GSE57495 datasets were divided into three subgroups. There were significant differences between subgroups in gene expression, pathway activity, clinical prognosis, and immune infiltration characteristics among the subtypes. Using machine learning algorithms, an RS model was constructed from DEGs among the subgroups, with the random forest method showing the best performance. A nomogram integrating the RS and clinical indicators demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates, confirming the RS as an independent prognostic factor. High- and low-risk groups exhibited significant differences in immune infiltration, pathway activity, and gene mutations. Drug sensitivity analysis showed that the high-risk group was more sensitive to AZD6244, ABT737, and other drugs. Conclusion: This study stratified patients with PAAD into three subgroups based on metabolic pathways and prognostic information, revealing significant differences in clinical outcomes, immune characteristics, and genetic mutations. The robust RS model developed from these findings demonstrated strong predictive power for patient survival and identified promising therapeutic strategies, providing valuable insights for advancing precision medicine in PAAD.