Assessing precipitation extremes in CMIP6 HighResMIP and possible future changes over the western North Pacific

• Extreme precipitation patterns across different regions of WNP are evaluated. • Two concentrated precipitation belts are observed throughout the four seasons. • Mid-21st century projections are derived from HighResMIP ensemble means. • Future precipitation tends to get wetter in high intensity region, and vice versa. Extreme precipitation in the western North Pacific (WNP) is jointly controlled by complex circulation systems, which can be better captured by enhancing model resolution. Despite progress in evaluating precipitation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), most assessments have focused on land monsoon regions or individual river basins, leaving the land-ocean transitional WNP insufficiently investigated. This study, leveraging the climate model outputs from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the CMIP6, examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in the WNP and evaluates the simulation biases across different models. The results indicate that most HighResMIP models are capable of simulating spatial patterns of double‑banded precipitation zones that are consistent with observations, with higher skill scores compared to their lower‑resolution counterparts. Among these models, ECMWF-IFS-HR and EC-Earth3P-HR exhibit superior performance in capturing both annual mean precipitation and extreme precipitation characteristics. The multi-model ensemble means from optimal models reduce uncertainty significantly by much narrowed inter-model spread. Precipitation projections in the mid-21st century (2031–2050) exhibit a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" divergent development characteristic, indicating an eastward expansion and an increased influence of extreme precipitation toward lower- and higher-latitude regions under future warming.

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Publication Details

Journal
Applied Ocean Research
Published
2026-03-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2026.105017
Primary Topic
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Assessing precipitation extremes in CMIP6 HighResMIP and possible future changes over the western North Pacific

Yongfan Cheng, Sichao Wang, Jie Yang, Meixiang Chen et al.
Applied Ocean Research
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
article

Assessing precipitation extremes in CMIP6 HighResMIP and possible future changes over the western North Pacific

Yongfan Cheng, Sichao Wang, Jie Yang, Meixiang Chen, Yushan Zhao, Yu Weng, Xinlu Liu
article en

Abstract

• Extreme precipitation patterns across different regions of WNP are evaluated. • Two concentrated precipitation belts are observed throughout the four seasons. • Mid-21st century projections are derived from HighResMIP ensemble means. • Future precipitation tends to get wetter in high intensity region, and vice versa. Extreme precipitation in the western North Pacific (WNP) is jointly controlled by complex circulation systems, which can be better captured by enhancing model resolution. Despite progress in evaluating precipitation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), most assessments have focused on land monsoon regions or individual river basins, leaving the land-ocean transitional WNP insufficiently investigated. This study, leveraging the climate model outputs from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the CMIP6, examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in the WNP and evaluates the simulation biases across different models. The results indicate that most HighResMIP models are capable of simulating spatial patterns of double‑banded precipitation zones that are consistent with observations, with higher skill scores compared to their lower‑resolution counterparts. Among these models, ECMWF-IFS-HR and EC-Earth3P-HR exhibit superior performance in capturing both annual mean precipitation and extreme precipitation characteristics. The multi-model ensemble means from optimal models reduce uncertainty significantly by much narrowed inter-model spread. Precipitation projections in the mid-21st century (2031–2050) exhibit a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" divergent development characteristic, indicating an eastward expansion and an increased influence of extreme precipitation toward lower- and higher-latitude regions under future warming.

Applied Ocean ResearchVol. 170
Hohai University (CN), Ministry of Natural Resources (CN), State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (CN), Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China (CN), Tsinghua University (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 34%
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
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