Detecting and Predicting Vegetation Transitions Based on Resilience Dynamics and Land-Cover Changes

Tipping points of vegetation transitions represent the thresholds beyond which ecosystems can no longer maintain their stable states. Approaching these critical points may result in declined resilience or irreversible vegetation transitions. Detecting and predicting tipping points remains notably challenging, yet it is essential for guiding the preservation and restoration of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, lag-1 temporal autocorrelation (AC1) derived from the Kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) was utilized as an early warning signal to monitor resilience dynamics. We developed a new tipping-point detection method by combining land-cover changes, time series segmentations and temporal–spatial filters. We revealed a widespread resilience decline in China, with the dominant transition type as shrub encroachment. Then, two machine learning models coupled with temporal cross-validation were employed to predict the probabilities of abrupt shifts in the near future. The results showed that Random Forest models (accuracy > 70%) demonstrated robustness across lead times. High probabilities of transitions in 2024 were concentrated along the 400 mm annual isohyet, mainly affected by decreased water availability, lower soil acidity and degraded vegetation functions. Our study provides an effective methodology to pinpoint hotspots of vegetation vulnerability and to support the conservation of ecosystems for a sustainable future.