An Integrated Assessment of Carbon-Neutral Transition Pathways for the Chinese Power Sector: Feasibility and Implications in a Coal-Dominant and Renewable-Rich Context

China’s power sector is undergoing a complicated transformation characterized by intricate dependence on the dominant coal infrastructure and abundant renewable energy resources. This study assesses China’s carbon-neutral transition pathways for the period of 2024–2060 by using the “Establish Before Breaking” principle within a policy-informed, high-resolution energy system modeling framework. To examine the technological, economic, and environmental trade-offs of various carbon-neutral strategies, four scenarios (Reference (REF), Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Renewable-Based (REB), and Integrated (ING)) were developed, and their impacts were assessed through the application of the Low Emission Analysis Platform and the Next Energy Modeling (LEAP–NEMO) model. The results reveal that the ING scenario represents the most feasible and policy-consistent pathway, achieving an 88% renewable electricity share and a total installed capacity of approximately 8000 gigawatts (GW) by 2060. This pathway relies on a dual-track strategy that combines accelerated renewable deployment—supported by geographical complementarity and multi-regional Power-to-X (PtX) systems—with the strategic stabilization of conventional generation assets. The findings further demonstrate that retaining a small but critical share of flexible coal-CCS (0.2–0.5%) and nuclear capacity is necessary to address sub-daily variability, mitigate duck-curve effects, and ensure power system reliability under high renewable penetration. This integrated approach offers a systematic pathway for deep decarbonization within China’s unique energy context, ensuring a just, equitable, and sustainable transition.