Integrated LEK, eDNA, and Maxent modeling reveals habitat suitability and conservation priorities for Chinese sturgeon(Acipenser sinensis) in the East China Sea coastal waters

The protection of marine habitats of the critically endangered Chinese sturgeon ( Acipenser sinensis ) is increasingly challenged as human activities intensify in estuarine and nearshore waters. Although its riverine phase has been studied extensively, marine habitat use and climate driven redistribution in the Yangtze River Estuary and the adjacent East China Sea remain poorly resolved. We integrated local ecological knowledge from fisher bycatch records, environmental DNA surveys, and maximum entropy modeling to infer current habitat suitability and to project future changes. Convergent evidence identified a high suitability corridor encompassing the Yangtze River Estuary, Hangzhou Bay, and the Zhoushan waters. Suitability was mainly structured by salinity gradients, with additional effects of primary productivity and water temperature. Under CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585), suitable habitats are projected to redistribute toward the northeast, and the suitability centroid is expected to move from the estuary toward the Zhoushan and Shengsi archipelagoes, while the estuary and nearshore zone remains a persistent core area. These shifts imply a growing spatial mismatch between future hotspots and existing static protected areas, which may reduce protection coverage along key migratory pathways. Together, these results provide a basis for adaptive conservation planning that accounts for climate related changes in marine habitat distribution.