Reframing human–nature connectedness: A multi-scale agent-based model across time and region

Prevailing work often treats nature connectedness primarily as an individual attribute or a function of local access to nature, limiting explanation of long-term declines and regional differences. Given human–nature connectedness is recognised as important for planetary sustainability and individual well-being, it is becoming a target for policy proposals. Using an agent-based model, we reconceptualise the human–nature relationship as a relational, multiscale system that integrates macro-level cultural dynamics, regional socio-environmental variation, intergenerational transmission and psychological processes into a single systems framework, offering novel insight into long-term and regionalised changes in the human–nature relationship. Integrating these factors allows insight into interactions producing historical trends and contemporary regional differences in nature connectedness. The model suggests that scientific prominence and economic context are strong national-level influences, whereas secularisation emerged as the dominant regional factor, alongside urbanisation, in declining engagement with nature and green spaces. Behavioural feedback linked to nature engagement also shaped trajectories. Future scenario simulations suggest continued declines in the human–nature relationship by 2050, particularly in less urbanised areas. However, targeted interventions such as nature-based neighbourhoods and children’s programmes demonstrate potential to mitigate or reverse these trends, especially in urban contexts. By bringing together disparate themes of research, the model provides a systems framework for research, planning and governance to understand and revive human–nature connectedness. It also provides theoretical synthesis of an emergent field and shifts the agenda from provision of green space to strategic interventions that consider key drivers of long-term disconnection from nature and local conditions. • Integrative ABM unifies cultural, regional, psychological and generational drivers • Urbanisation and cultural shifts drive long-term nature disconnection • Regional religiosity and nature quality shape local resilience to macro pressures • Scenario modelling shows combined interventions can reverse nature disengagement • Model supports policy testing for equitable nature access and ecosystem services