Declining Ecological Water Consumption of Marsh Wetlands and the Driving Forces in Semi-Arid Plateau Region: A Case Study in the Bashang Plateau, China

Wetlands in semi-arid regions are critical for ecological resilience but are increasingly degraded. Ecological water consumption (EWC), reflecting wetland water demand, is essential for understanding wetland sustainability. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of marsh wetland EWC in the Bashang Plateau, China, from 1986 to 2021, and identified its main driving forces. A Random Forest model was used to downscale GLASS evapotranspiration (ET) product from 0.05° to a 250 m monthly resolution, showing good agreement with flux measurements (RMSE = 21.94 mm, R2 = 0.83). Marsh wetland EWC was estimated using the downscaled ET and land cover data, and Granger causality analysis was applied to explore driving mechanisms. Results indicate that the marsh wetland area declined by 74% (from 552.81 to 143.69 km2) while forestland expanded by 217%. Correspondingly, marsh wetland EWC decreased by 67.2%, from 125 to 41 million m3. Precipitation and surface water area were identified as direct drivers of marsh wetland EWC decline, whereas groundwater table, forest EWC, and cropland EWC acted as indirect drivers. While cropland water use has been widely reported as an important factor, results suggest that increased forest EWC associated with large-scale afforestation contributed considerably to groundwater table decline, thereby influencing marsh wetland EWC.