Analyzing the impact of Canal Istanbul on ship traffic dynamics in the Turkish straits: a maritime traffic flow simulation model

The Turkish Straits System (TSS) is one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, facing congestion challenges due to larger ships, increased transit demand, and regulatory constraints. To address these issues, the Canal Istanbul Project (CIP) has been proposed as an alternative route to improve traffic efficiency and navigational safety. This study develops a maritime traffic system and queuing model based on the Vessel Traffic Flow Problem (VTFP) framework to evaluate the potential impact of CIP on TSS ship traffic. Two traffic models, namely one-way and two-way transit configurations, are simulated using Simio software, integrating historical AIS data and traffic constraints. Scenario analyses indicate that redirecting 90 % of transit ships to Canal Istanbul and 10 % to the Istanbul Strait results in a 36 % reduction in ship density and a 50 % decrease in waiting times. These findings demonstrate that Canal Istanbul has the potential to enhance efficiency and safety in the TSS, offering a data-driven basis for optimizing ship traffic flow in constrained waterways.