A multi-scenario identification of key ecological restoration areas integrating ecosystem service value and landscape risk in the northern Qinling foothills

Rapid urbanization and profound land use changes are driving a decline in ecosystem service value (ESV) and a rise in the Ecological Risk Index (ERI). These trends pose significant challenges to regional sustainable development. This study focuses on the Shaanxi section of the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains. By integrating remote sensing, statistical yearbooks, and GIS spatial analysis, we applied a coupled “value-risk-simulation” framework using the PLUS model. The findings are as follows. (1) From 1990 to 2020, regional ESV demonstrated a “decline–recovery” trend. Regulatory services contributed the most, and forestland and grassland were the primary contributors to ESV. ERI decreased overall, yet high-risk areas remained in central Xi’an and along the Wei, Ba, and Hei Rivers. (2) Simulations showed that the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS) and Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) best balance ecological value with risk management. (3) A significant negative correlation exists between ESV and ERI. High–High clusters are predominantly distributed in water bodies and their surrounding forestlands and grasslands. Mean annual temperature, DEM, GDP, and population density were identified as key factors associated with the spatial patterns of both ESV and ERI. This indicates that while these areas possess high ecosystem service functions, they face risks associated with climatic and environmental changes, landscape fragmentation, and human disturbance due to urban expansion. Consequently, our study identifies them as key areas for ecological restoration. Integrating ecological value assessment with risk prediction can provide a scientific pathway for spatially sustainable governance and policy-making in ecologically sensitive urban-transition zones.